[dmwg] Oxfam: 54% increase in number of people affected by climate disasters by 2015 could overwhelm emergency responses

[Vern Weitzel]

http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2009-04-21/increase-number-people-affected-climate-disasters

54% increase in number of people affected by climate disasters by 2015 could 
overwhelm emergency responses

The summary document may be downloaded at:

http://www.oxfam.org/en/policy/right-to-survive-report

I had trouble downloading the main document but the summary report is at:
http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/right-to-survive-summary-eng.pdf


21 April 2009

It is poverty and political indifference that make a storm a disaster
“The humanitarian system works as if it’s a global card game dealing out aid 
randomly, not based on people’s needs.”
Jeremy Hobbs
Executive Director, Oxfam International
Urgent reforms needed to outdated and unfair humanitarian system.

In six years time the number of people affected by climatic crises is projected 
to rise by 54 per cent to 375 million people, threatening to overwhelm the 
humanitarian aid system, said international agency Oxfam today.

The projected rise is due to a combination of entrenched poverty and people 
migrating to densely populated slums which are prone to the increasing number of 
climatic events. This is compounded by the political failure to address these 
risks and a humanitarian system which is not fit for purpose. In its report, The 
Right to Survive, Oxfam says the world needs to re-engineer the way it responds 
to, prepare for and prevents disasters.

Oxfam used the best-available data of 6,500 climate-related disasters since 1980 
to project that the number of people affected by climatic disaster will rise by 
133 million to 375 million people a year on average by 2015. This does not 
include people hit by other disasters such as wars, earthquakes and volcanic 
eruptions.

The world needs to increase its humanitarian aid spending from 2006 levels of 
$14.2 billion to at least $25 billion a year just to deal with these rising 
numbers of people. Even this increase in money – the equivalent of only $50 per 
affected person – is still woefully inadequate to meet their basic needs.
“The humanitarian system works as if it’s a global card game dealing out aid 
randomly, not based on people’s needs. The response is often fickle – too 
little, too late and not good enough. The world barely copes with the current 
level of disasters. A big increase in the numbers of people affected will 
overwhelm it unless there is fundamental reform of the system that puts those in 
need at its centre,” said Oxfam International’s Executive Director Jeremy Hobbs.
Oxfam says that the international humanitarian system needs to act swiftly and 
impartially after a disaster, investing money and effort commensurate with the 
levels of need. Aid is often given on the basis of political or other 
preferences making it unfair. In 2004, an average of $1,241 was spent for each 
victim of the Asian tsunami, while an average of only $23 was spent per person 
affected by the humanitarian crisis in Chad.

The world must change the way it delivers aid so that it builds on the country’s 
ability to prepare and withstand future shocks. National governments, with the 
help of the international community, need to invest more in reducing the risk of 
disasters.

And as climate change gathers pace, this trend is likely to continue to increase 
well beyond 2015. Rich countries must commit now to cut greenhouse gas emissions 
in order to keep global warming as far below 2°C as possible, and to provide at 
least $50 billion a year in finance to help poor countries adapt to unavoidable 
climate change.

“While there has been a steady increase in climate related events, it is poverty 
and political indifference that make a storm a disaster,” said Jeremy Hobbs.
More people are now living in urban slums built on land prone to weather shocks. 
More than 50 per cent of inhabitants of Mumbai, for instance, live in slums, 
many of them built on reclaimed swamplands. In 2005, widespread flooding in the 
city caused the deaths of around 900 people, most of them killed by landslips 
and collapsed buildings.

Hunger is on the increase, caused by drought, population density and an 
increasing demand for meat and dairy products in emerging economies. People are 
being driven from their homes – it is estimated up to a billion people will be 
forced from their homes by 2050 due to climate change, environmental 
degradation, and conflict. And finally more people are losing their jobs due to 
the global economic crisis.

However, despite their poverty, some countries such as Cuba, Mozambique and 
Bangladesh have invested heavily in protecting their people from storms. 
Following the 1972 super cyclone that killed a quarter of a million people, 
Bangladesh invested heavily in prevention and protection measures. The death 
toll from super cyclones in Bangladesh is in the low thousands – still far too 
high, but much less devastating. The experience of Cuba, Mozambique and 
Bangladesh shows that with sufficient help, even the world’s poorest countries 
can better protect their citizens.

Oxfam also notes that while the total number of conflicts has reduced over the 
years, a number remain intractable. “Entire generations of people have been 
displaced three, four or five times, and know nothing but armed violence and 
displacement,” said Hobbs. More than 18 million people could not get enough 
humanitarian aid because of conflict in 2007, according to UN figures.
Oxfam is shifting the way it responds to emergencies in the face of increasing 
climatic disasters investment, toward helping to reduce poor people 
vulnerability to disasters while still remaining a front-line agency that 
responds to humanitarian crises.

“Climate change is already threatening our work to overcome poverty, increasing 
the pressure on an already-difficult task of bringing relief to millions. It is 
crucial that we tackle climate change head-on. We need governments to raise 
their game. The world must agree a global deal to avoid catastrophic climate 
change, stop the fickle way it delivers aid, and radically improve how it 
responds to disasters.
Notes to editors

Oxfam analyzed data from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of 
Disasters (CRED) at Louvain University in Belgium to make its projection. The 
data covered more than 6,500 climate-related disasters since 1980 and the 
numbers of people affected.
The definition of people “affected” by a disaster includes those who suffer 
physical injuries or illness, as well as those made homeless or who otherwise 
required immediate assistance during a period of emergency.
In order to avoid catastrophic climate change, global warming must be kept as 
far below 2°C as possible. This requires industrialized countries as a group to 
cut their emissions by 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. This commitment 
must be made at the latest when they meet in Copenhagen at the end of this year 
to agree a new global deal on climate change.
Contact information

For more information, please contact:
Louis Belanger on +1 917 224 0834
Ian Bray on +4477 2146 1339
Read more

The Right to Survive: the stories behind the headlines
http://www.oxfam.org/en/campaigns/right-survive-case-studies

The Right to Survive: The humanitarian challenge in the twenty-first century 
(Oxfam International report)
http://www.oxfam.org/en/policy/right-to-survive-report