Consultant to do baseline study on climate change and urban development in The South East Asia for the 5-year period of 2018 - 2022

Terms of Reference

Consultant to do baseline study on climate change and urban development in The South East Asia

(Thailand, Vietnam and Philippines) for the 5-year period of 2018 - 2022

1. Background

Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung (RLS) is one of six major political foundations in the Federal Republic of Germany. Affiliated with the German Left party, Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung nurtures and promotes democratic socialism. We are striving to develop alternative approaches for transforming society toward a more united and just one. With this approach, we are facilitating political analysis, education, and dialogues, both in Germany and worldwide.

RLS currently has 26 offices worldwide. In over 80 countries, we are working with partners, including state agencies, academic institutions, and civil society organizations. From RLS Southeast Asia (RLS SEA) – Hanoi Office, we aim to contributing to ensure social, ecological and political rights for all as well as overcoming unequal power structures by promoting participatory decision making processes, political exchange and dialogue, leading to a fair distribution of wealth and resources and a healthy environment. To materialize this goal, we focus on three components including Social Justice, Social and Ecological Transformation, and Raising progressive Mekong voices in the ASEAN region. RLS SEA - Hanoi Office is geographically working in five countries - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand with a broader view into the Southeast Asia region.

2. Rationale

Climate change has been a growing problem in almost all countries across the world. It has an impact on the way businesses and value chains function, how developing countries attempt to obtain resources, and how local communities recover after suffering the horrible effects of extreme events due to global warming.  Greenhouse gas emissions have made climate change a dominant problem in our society.

The Southeast Asian region is considered as one of the most threatened and vulnerable regions to climate change. According to the 2018 climate risk index, countries in Southeast Asia rank highest. In the Annual State of Southeast Asia survey in 2019 and 2020 conducted by ASEAN the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak institute, Climate change ranked among Southeast Asia’s top three security concerns. In addition, ASEAN citizens considered climate change a greater threat than terrorism, historically perceived as a more important issue in the region.

Urban populations are growing rapidly all over the world. By 2050, it is expected that more than two-third of the world’s population will be living in urban areas[1]. The effects of urbanization and climate change have been combining in dangerous ways that seriously threaten the world’s environmental, economic and social stability. In the decades to come, climate change could make hundreds of millions of urban residents, especially those poorest and most marginalized, increasingly vulnerable to floods, landslides, more frequent and stronger cyclones and storms, and periods of more extreme heat and cold and other extreme events. This is because marginalized communities are forced to settle in areas particularly exposed to climate-induced extreme events, such as along river-banks and floodplains, on hillsides and slopes prone to landslides, near polluted grounds and decertified land, in heavily built-up areas causing heat-stress, and along waterfronts in coastal areas. City dwellers may also face reduced access to fresh water led by drought or the encroachment of saltwater on drinking water supplies. Nowadays, the city temperature is higher which is already leading to excessive heat stress. Additionally, climate change may have negative impacts on infrastructure and limit access to basic urban services and quality of life in cities, particularly in coastal areas where climate change impacts are most pronounced and numerous major cities are located. .

Nowadays, governments have increasingly issued urban development plans and policies to harmonize the urban development and climate change response. However, their effect is limited. The reasons include a lack of relevant urban action plans; existence of regulations on urban planning and environment which have not been adequately adjusted to respond to climate change; slow response to climate disasters due to lack of capacity and resources; and lack of public awareness on climate variability and climate change-induced hazard mitigation.

The baseline study on climate change and urban development is planned to be conducted in Thailand, Vietnam and Philippines, contributing to the RLS global work for climate change. It aims to provide the overall climate change impact in the city, how it is connected with the urban development and relevant policies. RLS SEA – Hanoi Office is recruiting one consultant/ a group of consultants to conduct the baseline studies on climate change and urban development in Bangkok (Thailand), Ho Chi Minh city (Vietnam) and Manila (the Philippines) with detail analysis for the 5-year period from 2018 – 2022.

3. Objectives of the study

The main objective of the baseline study is to track the development of climate change over recent years in the city; what are the impacts, how are they connected to urban development, and what are policies/regulations of the governments to respond. These are several sub-objectives as follow:

• To provide a comprehensive understanding of the current state of climate change development in the city.
• To provide information on the current impact of climate change on the environment, urban development and people’s living situation, including rural-urban migration.
• To map out all related stakeholders including government, regulatory agencies, private sectors, civil society and others. To analyze their role and responsibilities to contribute to respond to climate change in the city.
• To list and analyze the current policies/regulations on responding to climate change in general and climate change in the city in particular.
• To provide an analysis on national strategy to respond to climate change in the city.

4. Target groups of beneficiaries/ readers

• Political decision makers especially in Germany and in the “case countries” but also elsewhere
• NGOs and other civil society organizations, academics, and researchers in the global North and South to make use of the findings

5. Methodology, deliverables and guiding questions for the “case-study chapters”

5.1 Methodology

• Desk research/ Literature review – evaluating available data regarding climate change in the city in the respective country, analysis of available statistics in a quantitative approach (e.g. Government data, World Bank, ADB and others)
• Qualitative research: interviews and/ or group discussion with different actors such as government representatives, policy makers, scientists, civil society organizations, corporations and ordinary people (where appropriate)

5.2 Deliverables – Case countries

• A research report, maximum 15.000 words, in English
• Report summary (around 1000 words), in English
• A presentation in power point format, in English
• Scope: the research paper containing the following, but not limited to:
• An abstract/ summary of the key findings (max 2 pages)
• Precise answers to the questions and content requested below.
• A summary of the interviews, highlighting strong quotes
• An overview of existing data and analysis.
• An analysis and answers to the guiding questions (see below)
• A list of interviewees, including contact details and information whether we can quote a person by name or should treat them anonymously
• Provide trustworthy references (APA format)

Where applicable: Photographs that illustrate the main findings of the research and a few information regarding the specific photographs such as: where was it taken, who or what is visible and name of the copyright holder

Please note: the final case studies for the publication will be written by Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung

Proposed guiding questions

Please note: it is crucial that the consultant provides answers to these questions/topics!

• How has climate change impacted on human well-being, urban ecosystems, and socio-economic development over recent years in the city?
• What are the potential risks and areas of concern in terms of urbanization and climate change?
• What are the country’s regulation, policy or national program in an attempt to respond to climate change impacts (in details)? Evaluation on advantages and drawbacks
• What is the recommendation to better respond to climate change impacts in general and change in the city in particular?
• How the rural-urban migration happened? Have it impacted on climate change? Is climate change the main reason behind rural-urban migration?

6. Requirements

Necessary qualification:

• Proven experience in research on the topic of climate change or related field.
• At least 5 years of experiences doing qualitative and/ or quantitative research in the field of Social Sciences, Economic Development and Political Sciences.
• Basic knowledge of the international regulatory framework in the area of climate change is an asset;
• A strong network in climate and national resource sector and high-level of decision makers body in case-countries.
• Ability to write international- standards research report/ article in English (proven by a track of record of publications).
• Ability to communicate well in both verbal and written form of English.
• A flexible and can-do attitude towards challenges that might arise during the consultant/ research process.

7. Languages

The report shall be written in English, and then it will be translated to German for publications.

8. Publishers: Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung

9. Tentative Timeline

• By mid of August 2023: Researchers awarded and contracts signed
• By mid of September 2023: First version of research deliverables have been submitted
• By end of September 2023: Feedback provided to country case studies
• By mid of October 2023: Final research deliverables submitted
• By end of October 2023: First draft of the study available
• By mid of November 2023: Feedback provided
• By mid of December 2023: Study finalized
• By mid of January 2024: Layout design finalized, Translation available
• By end of January 2024: final study available in German, English and local languages.

10. Application

RLS SEA – Hanoi Office would like to invite interested consultant team/ organization to submit their application in English language including:

• Short research design/ proposal to propose how the consultant is planning to conduct the research (maximum 2 pages).
• CV of consultant/ team members with at least two references and highlights on points that reflex listed necessary qualifications.
• Financial plan, including:
• Numbers of working days according to the timeline above;
• Proposed budget of the study including proposed working daily rate in VND (stating clearly if it is including or not including Personal Income Tax (PIT) or Value Added Tax (VAT).
• Organizational profile (if any).

Application deadline: 20 July 2023

Please submit your application to Mr. Nghiem Tuan Anh, Project Manager RLS SEA via the email address: [email protected] and Ms. Duong Huong Giang, Chief Finance Manager via the email address: [email protected] are only accepted before the application deadline. Only short-listed applicants will be contacted.